Probability

This page is up to date (v1.3.1).

This page is intended to provide players with a rough idea of how many actions/clears/attempts it will take to source particular items or pets. MelvorIdle uses a system of random distribution when aquiring luck-based items - which revolves around a binomial distribution mechanism. Using this Simulation, the random distribution was analysed using a numerical method.

The following table shows how you should interpret the data:

Item Goal	Top 25% Luck	Average Luck	Bottom 25% Luck	Simulation
Volcanic Cave (Ancient Set)	χ clears to be in the top 25% luckiest	χ clears on average	χ clears to be in the bottom 25% luckiest	Simulation Output

Item Goal	Top 25% Luck	Average Luck	Bottom 25% Luck	Simulation
Volcanic Cave (Ancient Set)	χ clears to be in the top 25% luckiest	χ clears on average	χ clears to be in the bottom 25% luckiest	Simulation Output
Volcanic Cave (Ancient Set)	χ clears to be in the top 25% luckiest	χ clears on average	χ clears to be in the bottom 25% luckiest	Simulation Output
Volcanic Cave (Ancient Set)	χ clears to be in the top 25% luckiest	χ clears on average	χ clears to be in the bottom 25% luckiest	Simulation Output
Volcanic Cave (Ancient Set)	χ clears to be in the top 25% luckiest	χ clears on average	χ clears to be in the bottom 25% luckiest	Simulation Output

Melvor Idle version v1.3.1 (Released: 30th October 2024)
Error creating thumbnail: File missing Combat: Error creating thumbnail: File missing Attack • Error creating thumbnail: File missing Strength • Error creating thumbnail: File missing Defence • Error creating thumbnail: File missing Hitpoints • Error creating thumbnail: File missing Ranged • Error creating thumbnail: File missing Magic • Error creating thumbnail: File missing Prayer • Error creating thumbnail: File missing Slayer • Error creating thumbnail: File missing Corruption
Skills: Error creating thumbnail: File missing Farming • Error creating thumbnail: File missing Township • Error creating thumbnail: File missing Woodcutting • Error creating thumbnail: File missing Fishing • Error creating thumbnail: File missing Firemaking • Error creating thumbnail: File missing Cooking • Error creating thumbnail: File missing Mining • Error creating thumbnail: File missing Smithing • Error creating thumbnail: File missing Thieving • Error creating thumbnail: File missing Fletching • Error creating thumbnail: File missing Crafting • Error creating thumbnail: File missing Runecrafting • Error creating thumbnail: File missing Herblore • Error creating thumbnail: File missing Agility • Error creating thumbnail: File missing Summoning • Error creating thumbnail: File missing Astrology • Error creating thumbnail: File missing Alternative Magic • Error creating thumbnail: File missing Cartography • Error creating thumbnail: File missing Archaeology • Error creating thumbnail: File missing Harvesting
Other: Error creating thumbnail: File missing Beginners Guide • Guides • Error creating thumbnail: File missing Bank • Error creating thumbnail: File missing Combat • Error creating thumbnail: File missing Mastery • Error creating thumbnail: File missing Money Making • Error creating thumbnail: File missing Shop • Easter Eggs • Pets • Error creating thumbnail: File missing Golbin Raid • Error creating thumbnail: File missing Full Version • Throne of the Herald • Atlas of Discovery • Error creating thumbnail: File missing Into the Abyss
Reference Tables: Items, Equipment, Experience Table, Upgrading Items, Combat Areas, Slayer Areas, Dungeons, Strongholds, The Abyss, Monsters