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| Line 286: |
Line 286: |
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| ! Item | | ! Item |
| ! Clears per hour | | ! Adjusted clear time (s) |
| |- | | |- |
| | {{ItemIcon|Sunset Rapier}} | | | {{ItemIcon|Sunset Rapier}} |
| | 8.49 | | | 1892 |
| |- | | |- |
| | {{ItemIcon|Ancient Claw}} | | | {{ItemIcon|Ancient Claw}} |
| | 9.23 | | | 1717 |
| |} | | |} |
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| The goal of clearing the {{ZoneIcon|Volcanic Cave}} is to get the {{ItemIcon|(G) Ancient Helmet|ancient}} set. | | The goal of clearing the {{ZoneIcon|Volcanic Cave}} is to get the {{ItemIcon|(G) Ancient Helmet|ancient}} set. |
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| Let's consider the simplified case when we see all four pieces of the set as a single entity with the probability of 2/241 + 4/723 = 10/723, and we need to get this entity four times.
| | As specified on in the [[Volcanic Cave/Guide]], you need 1350 clears to almost certainly get a full set of Ancient armor or 832 clears to have a 75% chance. The median (50% or results) is 564 clears. |
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| The described task is identical to a [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernoulli_trial Bernoulli trial] with the probability of success being 10/723.
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| By using a Bernoulli calculator such as [https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx this one], entering probability of success on a single trial (10/723), number of trials, and number of successes (4), we tweak the number of trials until the cumulative probability <math>P(X \geq x)</math> that number of successes is at least equal to desired is as large as we want. For this trial, the cumulative threshold was set to 80%.
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| The number of trials that gave this probability is 400, meaning that it will take more than 400 clears of {{ZoneIcon|Volcanic Cave}} to get a full set of Ancient armor.
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| The results are:
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| {| class="wikitable" | | {| class="wikitable" |
| |- | | |- |
| ! Item | | ! Item |
| ! Clears per hour | | ! Adjusted clear time (clears/h) |
| ! Volcanic timing | | ! 564 clears (h) |
| | ! 832 clears (h) |
| | ! 1350 clears (h) |
| |- | | |- |
| | {{ItemIcon|Sunset Rapier}} | | | {{ItemIcon|Sunset Rapier}} |
| | 8.49 | | | 1.9027 |
| | 47.1h | | | 296.4 |
| | | 437 |
| | | 710 |
| |- | | |- |
| | {{ItemIcon|Ancient Claw}} | | | {{ItemIcon|Ancient Claw}} |
| | 9.23 | | | 2.0967 |
| | 43.4h | | | 267 |
| |}
| | | 397 |
| | | | 644 |
| However, the initial simplification of pooling four items into one doesn't account for repeat drops, which is a large part of the 4-item group. The solution to this problem is hardly analytical and usually done by simulation. When the simulation is programmed and run, the results will be on this page. The current anecdotal number is 600.
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| Without the food, the results are the following.
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| {| class="wikitable"
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| |- | |
| ! Item
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| ! Clears per hour
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| ! Volcanic timing
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| |- | |
| | {{ItemIcon|Sunset Rapier}}
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| | 8.49
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| | 70.7h
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| |- | | |- |
| | {{ItemIcon|Ancient Claw}} | | | Difference (h) |
| | 9.23 | | | | | 29 | 40 | 66 |
| | 65h | |
| |} | | |} |
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| Because the food preparation is important to calculate the adjusted clear time, no definite resolution is given on the question of when to farm the claw.
| | As you see from the Difference, even the 50% chance still gives the 4-hour advantage if you get the Claw before the Volcanic Cave. |
